US real GDP ended 2015 on a weak note. It increased at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter, down from 2.0% in the third quarter, according to an advance estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released today.

In a research report, TD economics Senior Economist James Marple said weakness is concentrated in the oil and gas segment.

“Worry about the pace of US economic growth has contributed to the rise in risk aversion and rout in equity markets at the start of this year, Marple wrote. “Despite the soft headline number, the underlying details in this report suggest that these worries are unfounded. Once again, weakness is concentrated in areas of the economy directly exposed to oil and gas and external demand. There are very few signs that this weakness has spread to the rest of the economy. Even within the industrial sector, the number of industries in contraction is much lower than one would see in the lead up to an economy-wide economic slowdown.”

The Conference board reported Q4 growth was below expectations of about 1%, but not all is grim.

“The most likely scenario is for solid employment growth, the improving housing market, higher consumer confidence and more government spending to offset the headwinds from the ongoing dollar appreciation and the slow global economy, and lead to GDP growth of about 2% for the year as a whole in 2016,” said Gad Levanon, managing director, macroeconomic and labor market research at The Conference Board.

Growth in the staffing industry is strongly correlated with GDP growth, according to research from Staffing Industry Analysts.

In other economic reports this week:

• The US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance was 283,000 last week, down 2,250 from the previous week’s average, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released today by the US Department of Labor. The previous week’s average was revised upward slightly by 250.
• New Mexico posted the highest unemployment rate among all states in December at 6.7%, according to data released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Alaska followed at 6.5%. North Dakota posted the lowest unemployment rate in December at 2.7%.
• The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for the US improved moderately in January following an increase in December, The Conference Board announced. The index rose to a reading of 98.1 (1985=100) from a reading of 96.3 in December.