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Ontario to lead provincial economic growth in 2015

December 12, 2014

Canada’s real gross domestic product will grow 2.7 percent in 2015, according to the Provincial Outlook report released today by RBC Economics. RBC is forecasting real GDP growth of 2.5 percent in 2014, 2.7 percent in 2015 and 2.1 percent in 2016.

All provincial economies are expected to grow in 2015, although the oil price slump should alter rankings, the report found.

Growth in Ontario is expected to reach 3.1 percent in 2015, which would be the best among the provinces and an acceleration from 2.3 percent in 2014. According to the report, stronger exports, higher household spending, and brisk activity in the housing sector have re-invigorated the provincial economy since the spring of 2014, after real GDP growth slowed to a post-recession low of 1.3 percent in 2013.

Predicted 2015 growth in real GDP:

  • British Columbia: +2.9 percent
  • Alberta: +2.7 percent
  • Saskatchewan: +3.0 percent
  • Manitoba: +2.9 percent
  • Ontario: +3.1 percent
  • Quebec: +2.0 percent
  • New Brunswick: +1.8 percent
  • Nova Scotia: +2.2 percent
  • Prince Edward Island: +1.2 percent
  • Newfoundland and Labrador: +1.1 percent

Additionally, an Economic and Financial Market Outlook report issued today by RBC Economics notes that Canada’s labor market showed renewed strength in recent months with monthly job gains accelerating. RBC expects the unemployment rate to hold around 6.5 percent — within the range of what is considered to be the economy's full employment rate. However, the report found wage growth has not kept pace with the improving labor market with the average increase running at about 2.0 percent throughout 2013 and 2014 year-to-date.