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NABE economists lower GDP projections in new survey

December 07, 2015

Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics lowered their growth projects for the US economy in 2015 and 2016, according to survey released today.

The forecaster’s median forecast is for inflation-adjusted US gross domestic product (real GDP) to grow at an annualized rate of 2.4% in 2015 in the new survey, down from 2.5% in the October 2015 survey.

Annualized real GDP growth is expected to improve slightly next year to 2.6%. However, that number is down from 2.7% forecasted in the previous survey’s 2016 forecast.

The survey included 49 forecasters, and was conducted from Nov. 6 to Nov. 18, 2015.

“Looking further ahead, two-thirds of the panelists expect potential economic growth to average between 2.0% and 2.5% during the next five years,” NABE President Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly said. “This lackluster growth potential is the consequence of tepid productivity gains which have been hindered by low capital formation, financial, environmental, and other regulatory constraints, low innovation, and workforce development/education issues.”

Panelists foresee nonfarm payroll growth above 200,000 jobs per month through the end of 2016. But following weak September payroll data, the outlook for 2015 has been revised downward to 202,000 jobs per month from 212,000 per month in October’s survey. The 2016 forecast for job creation is unchanged from the October survey, just north of 210,000. Unemployment rate expectations are slightly more optimistic compared with those in the October survey; the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.7% by the fourth quarter of 2016, compared to 4.8% in the October survey.