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Moody’s predicts one of the longest economic expansions in history

March 24, 2015

Moody’s Analytics expects the current US economic expansion to be one of the longest in history, as jobs continue to grow, wages revive and households and businesses balance sheets strengthen, the economic forecast provider announced today.

Moody's Analytics US Macro Forecast reports the US economic expansion is approaching its sixth birthday. It is already longer than the average expansion since World War II but shows no sign of significant wear and tear, the report stated. Prospects are good that this will be one of the longer expansions in the nation’s history.

“Expansions generally end when an economy overheats and exposes overextended households, businesses and financial institutions,” said Mark Zandi, managing director and chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “This usually happens when the labor market is at full employment, businesses are operating beyond capacity, inflation pressures develop and interest rates surge. The expansion we’re experiencing now is far from any of this.”

 The report noted:

  • Job gains span all industries, regions and pay scales.
  • There is no indication that households, businesses and financial institutions are overleveraged.
  • The banking system is on stronger financial ground.
  • If there is a fissure in the financial system that could pose a risk to the economic expansion, it is in the shadow system.