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ManpowerGroup survey: US Q4 hiring sustains momentum

September 09, 2014

U.S. employers expect to increase hiring in the fourth quarter, according to the fourth-quarter 2014 Manpower employment outlook survey released today by ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN). This is the strongest net employment outlook since the first quarter of 2008.

Among U.S. employers surveyed, 19 percent expect to add to their workforces and 7 percent expect a decline in payrolls during the fourth quarter of 2014. Seventy-two percent of employers anticipate making no change to staff levels and the remaining two percent are undecided about fourth-quarter hiring plans. This results in a net employment outlook of 15 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, an increase from the third-quarter’s net employment outlook of 14 percent and up two percentage points from last year’s fourth quarter.

“During 2014, we have seen incremental growth across industries and regions as employers rebuild their internal teams and implement new operational strategies,” said ManpowerGroup CEO Jonas Prising. “The lack of any significant peaks or valleys in the survey results reflects a slow and steady climb that continues to define the employment landscape, and an enduring optimism that will carry us into 2015.”

Employers in North Dakota, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas and Wisconsin indicated the strongest net employment outlooks while Alaska, Maine, New Jersey and Arkansas project the weakest outlooks.

All 13 industry sectors reported a net positive outlook. The industries with the highest net employment outlooks are leisure and hospitality at 24 percent; mining at 20 percent; and wholesale and retail trade at 19 percent. The worst industries for hiring were government, education and health services, and “other services,” all at 11 percent.

Quarter over quarter, employers in all four regions anticipate hiring to remain relatively stable. And three regions report the strongest outlooks in more than six years:

  • Midwest — 15 percent, the strongest since the fourth quarter 2007 (18 percent).
  • South — 15 percent, the strongest since the second quarter of 2008 (17 percent).
  • West — 16 percent, the strongest since the first quarter of 2008 (22 percent).

ManpowerGroup’s employment outlook survey includes responses from more than 18,000 U.S. employers.

Canada hiring trends

Canadian employers project a modest hiring environment for the fourth quarter. In Canada, 12 percent of employers expect to increase staffing levels, 7 percent anticipate a decrease, 79 percent forecast no change and 2 percent are unsure about hiring plans. This results in a net employment outlook of 8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from an outlook of 10 percent in the third quarter, as well as 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

“We continue to see some positive signs from employers across the country. However, the hiring climate is expected to be more modest in the fourth quarter, with the weakest Net Employment Outlook we’ve seen since the second quarter of 2010,” said Byrne Luft, vice president of operations for Manpower Canada. “Although the political environments in Quebec and Ontario have stabilized after their provincial elections, it has not yet translated to an uptick in the general mood, particularly among SMBs.”

Manpower Canada expects to see growth in the public administration; transportation and public utilities; and financial, insurance and real estate sectors, Luft said.