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ManpowerGroup survey: US Q1 hiring momentum continues

December 09, 2014

U.S. employers expect to increase hiring in the first quarter, according to the first-quarter 2015 Manpower employment outlook survey released today by ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN). This is the strongest net employment outlook since the first quarter of 2008.

Among US employers surveyed, 19 percent expect to add to their workforces and 6 percent expect a decline in payrolls during the first quarter of 2015. Seventy-three percent of employers anticipate making no change to staff levels and the remaining two percent are undecided about first-quarter hiring plans. This results in a net employment outlook of 16 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, an increase from the fourth-quarter’s net employment outlook of 15 percent and up two percentage points from last year’s first quarter.

“As overall demand improves, we continue to see consistent, gradual strengthening in US employers’ hiring plans,” said ManpowerGroup CEO Jonas Prising. “There’s a little wind at our backs, as evidenced by the broadly positive hiring plans, and we see that as boding well for 2015.”

Employers in Hawaii, North Dakota, Delaware, Michigan and Texas indicated the strongest net employment outlooks while New Jersey, Alaska, New Hampshire and Rhode Island project the weakest outlooks.

All 13 industry sectors reported a net positive outlook. The industries with the highest net employment outlooks are leisure and hospitality at 28 percent; wholesale and retail trade at 24 percent; transportation and utilities at 18 percent; and professional and business services at 18 percent. The worst industries for hiring include information at 10 percent and “other services” and education and health services, both at 11 percent.

Quarter over quarter, employers in all four regions anticipate a slight increase in hiring. Net employment outlooks, seasonally adjusted, for the first quarter include:

  • Midwest — 17 percent
  • South — 18 percent
  • West — 18 percent
  • Northeast—14 percent

ManpowerGroup’s employment outlook survey includes responses from 18,000 US employers.

Canada hiring trends

Canadian employers project a fair hiring climate for the first quarter. In Canada, 11 percent of employers expect to increase staffing levels, 7 percent anticipate a decrease, 79 percent forecast no change and 3 percent are unsure about hiring plans. This results in a net employment outlook of 10 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from an outlook of 8 percent in the fourth quarter, as well as 9 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

Employers in the finance, insurance and real estate sector reported the strongest job prospects, with a net employment outlook of 16 percent for the first quarter.

“We are seeing some cautious, though positive, signs in the labor market in Canada, with employers expecting a fair hiring pace for the coming quarter,” said Michelle Dunnill, Manpower area manager for Toronto, Mississauga and Markham. “The nation’s unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly six years this fall. However, we must be cautious and remember that a number of citizens are discouraged and have abandoned finding full-time work, and are getting by on part-time work and short-term contracts.”

ManpowerGroup’s employment outlook survey includes responses from 1,900 Canadian employers.