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ManpowerGroup Survey: US Q3 hiring to increase pace, Canada slows slightly

June 09, 2015

US employers expect to increase hiring in the third quarter according to the third-quarter 2015 Manpower employment outlook survey released today by ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN). Their hiring intentions are among the strongest globally, exceeded only by employers in Taiwan, India, Japan and Hong Kong.

Among US employers surveyed, 24% expect an increase in staff levels, the highest percentage of employers adding staff since the third quarter of 2008. The survey also found 4% expect to reduce workforce levels during the third quarter of 2015, 70% of employers anticipate making no change to staff levels and the remaining 2% are undecided about second-quarter hiring plans. This results in a net employment outlook of 16% on a seasonally adjusted basis, unchanged from the second-quarter’s net employment outlooks and up two percentage points from last year’s third-quarter outlook.

“US employers have reported the same steady hiring plans throughout 2015, and the third-quarter results are no exception,” said ManpowerGroup CEO Jonas Prising. “We are seeing the signs of a healthy labor market, with the outlook improving compared to 2014. Although there is some variance in optimism across sectors, employers are focused on growth and adding to their workforces at a controlled rate so as not to face the consequences of over-hiring.”

Employers in North Dakota, Michigan, Virginia and Iowa indicated the strongest net employment outlooks while Alaska, Illinois, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Arizona project the weakest outlooks.

Employers in 12 of the 13 industry sectors reported a net positive outlook. The industries with the highest seasonally adjusted net employment outlooks are leisure and hospitality at 28%; wholesale and retail trade at 23%; transportation and utilities at 18%; and professional and business services at 18%. Only mining employers expect job losses to outpace gains, as indicated by the minus 5% net employment outlook.

The third-quarter research shows quarter-over-quarter hiring plans improved slightly in the South and remain unchanged in the Northeast, Midwest and West. Year over year, employers in the West plan for a moderate increase in the hiring pace while employers in the Northeast, Midwest and South are slightly more confident about staff additions. Net employment outlooks, seasonally adjusted, for the third quarter include:

  • Midwest — 17%
  • South — 18%
  • West — 18%
  • Northeast —15%

ManpowerGroup’s employment outlook survey includes responses from more than 11,000 US employers.

Canada hiring trends

Canadian employers project a mild hiring climate for the third quarter. In Canada, 20% of employers expect to increase staffing levels, 5% anticipate a decrease, 74% forecast no change and 1% are unsure about hiring plans. This results in a net employment outlook of 9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, a one percentage point decrease from both the second-quarter outlook and the outlook in the third quarter of 2014.

Employers in the finance, insurance and real estate sector -— along with the transportation and public utilities sector — reported the most favorable job prospects, both seasonally adjusted net employment outlooks of 15% for the third quarter. While this is a four percentage-point decrease for the finance, insurance and real estate sector from the previous quarter, it is also an increase of four percentage points over the sector’s outlook from the same period last year. The outlook for the transportation and public utilities sector is a one percentage point increase from the forecast reported for the previous quarter, and a decrease of four percentage points from the outlook reported during the same time last year.

“We are seeing many positive signs in Canada’s job market, with a steady unemployment rate through the first part of the year and unexpected job creation in March,” said Michelle Dunnill, Manpower area manager for Toronto, Mississauga and Markham. “However, despite these encouraging signs, youth unemployment and lack of fulltime job creation continue to be a concern.”

ManpowerGroup’s employment outlook survey includes responses from more than 1,900 Canadian employers.