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Leading index uptick, but trend doesn't end

December 05 2008

The growth rate for the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading index measuring the U.S. economy contracted 28.5% in the week ended Nov. 28; it had contracted 29.2% in the prior period. The index level is now 109.9.

"Despite the first uptick in [weekly leading index] growth since mid-September, it remains in a steep cyclical downtrend, suggesting that the recession will deepen further in the coming months," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the institute.

The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average of the level and compared against the previous year's average.

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