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Growth Prospects ‘Muddled’ for 2012

November 16 2011

U.S. and global growth prospects for 2012 are “muddled,” with decelerating consumer spending, a rollback in government spending and weak export growth as key factors in the uncertainty, along with volatile economic conditions in Europe, according to an economic forecast released today by Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s J. Mack Robinson College of Business.

Meanwhile, CEO confidence levels and durable goods orders, both indicators of investments that create jobs, are trending downward as well.

“The fall in CEO confidence is due to the uncertain climate for external demand as well as political dysfunction resulting from the recent debt-ceiling negotiations, and waiting for the Super Committee’s recommendations later this month,” said Dhawan, who expects the dysfunction to increase in 2012 because it is an election year.

The forecast’s report expects the U.S. economy will add about 100,000 jobs per month in 2012 and 120,000 jobs per month in 2013.

The unemployment rate is predicted to remain just above 9.0 percent through 2012 before moderating to 8.9 percent in 2013.

In addition, the center forecasts real gross domestic product will grow 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, and expand by 1.5 percent in the first half of 2012 and 1.7 percent in the second half for an average growth rate of 1.8 percent for all of 2011 and 2012.


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