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GDP still contracting, jobless rate to rise

May 18, 2009

Economists estimated U.S. gross domestic product will contract 2.8% in 2009, unemployment will top out at 9.8% in the fourth quarter and the country will continue to shed jobs, according to the second-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The estimates are downgrades of first-quarter estimates.

Economists in the survey estimated real GDP will contract 2.8% for 2009, compared with their previous estimate of 2.0% contraction. Second-quarter GDP is expected to contract 1.5% with some growth beginning in the third quarter with a 0.4% expansion in the GDP.

Unemployment will rise to 9.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010, according to the report. The economists believe it will edge down to 9.7% in the second quarter of 2010.

The economists also forecast a loss of around 422,600 jobs a month for 2009. The monthly job loss will be at 521,500 in the second quarter, 282,500 in the third and 104,700 in the fourth.

The U.S. should add 19,900 jobs in the first quarter of 2010, according to the survey.