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GDP estimate revised upward, beats forecast

September 25, 2015

US real GDP rose in the second quarter at an annual rate of 3.9%, according to a third estimate that revises an earlier, second estimate of 3.7%, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated.

In the first quarter, real GDP increased only 0.6%.

Bloomberg reports the new estimate exceeds the median forecast of 76 economists surveyed, which called for a 3.7% gain in GDP. “Declining energy prices have been a big support, and that was a big windfall for consumers,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, told Bloomberg. “We’ve been growing above trend, and we think that’ll probably continue for at least the third and fourth quarters.”

Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors wrote in a blog post on Whitehouse.gov: “Real GDP growth in the second quarter was revised up for a second time, as consumers spent more and businesses invested more than previously estimated. This morning’s report confirms that the economy grew at a much faster pace in the second quarter than in the first, with strong personal consumption leading the rebound. Over the first half of 2015, domestic demand remained robust, even as slowing foreign demand and reduced oil-driven drilling investment dragged on growth.”

Growth in the staffing industry is strongly correlated with GDP growth, according to research from Staffing Industry Analysts.