US real GDP rose in the third quarter at an annual rate of 1.5%, according to an “advance” estimate issued by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. It’s below the consensus forecast for 1.7%, and follows an increase of 3.9% in the second quarter.

“The economy is in better shape than captured in the growth of real GDP,” according to a report by James Marple, senior economist at TD Economics. “The headline masks solid strength in domestic demand that has historically been the best predictor of future GDP growth.”

The slow growth in GDP was largely a result of slower inventory buildup, according to Gad Levanon, managing director, macroeconomic and labor market research at The Conference Board. A better gauge of the trend in current economic activity is final sales of domestic products, which held quite well at 3.0%.

“Household spending is the main engine of the US economy right now with consumption spending growing at 3.2% and residential investment at 6.1% in the third quarter,” Lavanon said. “The still-lingering impact of the low oil prices on investment is still visible in the structures components, but overall investment in equipment recovered nicely to 5.3%.”

Levanon continued, “Moving forward, we continue to expect US households to push GDP growth only slightly beyond its long run trend which we estimate to be about 2% right now. In the coming year, we expect GDP growth to average about 2.5%, despite still downward pressure from net exports.”

Growth in the staffing industry is strongly correlated with GDP growth, according to research from Staffing Industry Analysts.

In other economic news, the US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week to 259,250, the lowest level since mid-December 1973, when it was 256,750. The moving average fell by 4,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released today by the US Department of Labor.

The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended Oct. 24 rose by 1,000 to 260,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level, but remain near the lowest level in four decades.

No special factors affected this week’s initial claims.

Bloomberg reported claims rose less than the median forecast in its survey of 47 economists, which projected claims would rise to 265,000.

The very low level of layoffs suggests the labor market remains in good shape, despite a recent sharp slowdown in job growth, according to Reuters. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday noted that the pace of job gains had slowed, but said “underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year.”