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Forecasters Slash GDP Growth Estimate for Q3

August 12 2011

Forecasters cut their estimate of third-quarter growth in U.S. real gross domestic product to 2.2 percent from their second-quarter estimate of 3.4 percent, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s third-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters. In all, the forecasters also lowered their estimates of GDP growth through the first quarter of 2012.

Real GDP will grow 1.7 percent for full-year 2011, down from the second-quarter estimate of 2.7 percent. Meanwhile, the forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.6 percent in 2012, down 20 basis points from the previous estimate.

Forecasters estimated the U.S. unemployment rate for 2011 will be 9.0 percent, up from the second-quarter estimate of 8.7 percent.

In addition, forecasters cut the estimated monthly job growth in the third quarter to only 105,300 jobs per month from the second-quarter estimate of 194,500 new jobs per month.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters includes estimates made by 37 economists.

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