Daily News

View All News

Faster GDP Growth, More Jobs in Forecast

February 11, 2011

Forecasters raised their estimates of growth in jobs and U.S. gross domestic product while saying unemployment should be lower than previously expected.

In the first-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, economists forecast GDP growth of 3.6 percent in the first quarter of this year. That's up from an estimate of 2.4 percent in the last quarter's report.

Full-year 2011 should also see GDP growth of 3.2 percent; a jump from the estimate of 2.5 percent in the last quarter.

Forecasters also raised the estimates of jobs to be added in 2011 to 134,900 new jobs per month, up from the previous estimate of 105,500.

At the same time, forecasters estimated the annual unemployment rate will be 9.1 percent in 2011, a decline from the earlier estimate of 9.3 percent.

The first-quarter survey included responses from 43 forecasters.

First Quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters
  Real GDP (%) Unemployment rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month)
  Q4 report Q1 report Q4 report Q1 report Q4 report Q1 report
2011:            
Q1 2.4 3.6 9.5 9.3 104.2 129.1
Q2 2.7 3.5 9.4 9.2 144.3 188.3
Q3 3.3 3.1 9.2 9.0 139.8 201.1
Q4 2.9 3.4 9.0 8.8 170.6 213.1
2012:            
Q1 N.A. 3.1 N.A. 8.7 N.A. 201.4
             
Annual Average Data            
2011 2.5 3.2 9.3 9.1 105.5 134.9
2012 2.9 3.1 8.7 8.5 N.A. 226.1
2013 3.0 3.0 7.9 7.8 N.A. N.A.
2014 N.A. 3.4 N.A. 7.3 N.A. N.A.