The National Association for Business Economics’ July Outlook Survey of its members found growth is expected for the remainder of 2015. Members also reported increased employment during the second quarter and anticipate wages will increase in the next three months.

“Respondents are marginally less bullish than they were in previous surveys,” said NABE President John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo. 

The share of survey respondents reporting increased employment at their businesses during the second quarter rose modestly to 36%, up from 35% in April and 34% in January. Falling employment was reported by a larger percentage of respondents than in April: 12% of the panel reported employment declined at their firms in the latest quarter compared to 7% in the previous survey. Employment declines were more prevalent for goods producers (25%) and transportation, utilities, information, communications firms (17%) than for finance, insurance, real estate firms (9%) or services businesses (5%).

Hiring expectations in the third quarter edged higher compared to those for the second quarter. The overall net rising index — the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting an increase and the percentage reporting a decrease — was 31 in July, up from 29 in April’s survey. The share of respondents expecting increases in employment held steady at 41% over the quarter, while 10% of respondents expect declines in the third quarter, down slightly from 12% who had expected them in the second quarter.

“The panel reports markedly increased shortages in the July survey, especially of skilled labor,” said Jim Diffley, senior director at IHS. “One half of the respondents continue to expect rising wages going forward.” 

The net rising index for wages and salaries held relatively steady quarter over quarter — 40 in July versus 43 in April. A slightly smaller share of respondents, 42%, reported rising wages and salaries at their firms in the second quarter than the first quarter, when 45% reported rising wages and salaries. The percentage reporting a decline edged up to 2% from 1%.

Almost half of the panel, 49%, anticipates wages will increase in the next three months; this compares to 51% in the January survey and 46% in the April survey. Only 2% of respondents expect their firms to reduce wages and salaries in the next three months, compared to 1% who held that view in the April survey.

Four out of five respondents expect real GDP to grow between 2.1% and 4.0% from the second quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015.

The report presents the responses of 112 NABE members and selected other industry economists to a survey on business conditions in their firms or industries conducted from June 17 to July 1, 2015, and reflects second-quarter 2015 results and the near-term outlook.