Daily News

View All News

Chicago Fed economic index falls further

December 22, 2008

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's national activity index, which measures economic activity in the U.S., fell in November. The three-month average of the index slipped to -2.49 from October's reading of -2.40.

"This negative value suggests that growth in national economic activity was well below its historical trend," according to the Chicago Fed's report.

A reading of zero indicates the economy is expanding at its historical rate of growth. Negative readings indicate below-average growth. And readings of below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion indicate an increasing likelihood of recession. The measure first indicated an increasing likelihood of recession in December 2007, according to the Chicago Fed; and the National Bureau of Economic Research has since announced that the U.S.' business cycle peaked in that month.

The national activity index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity.