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CEO survey finds decline in GDP estimate, hiring plans

September 15, 2015

CEOs now expect 2015 US gross domestic product growth of 2.4%, down from last quarter’s estimate of 2.5%, according to the Business Roundtable’s third-quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey. CEOs expect sales, investment and hiring to decrease in the next six months, according to the report.

The survey found 33% of respondents expect their company’s US employment to increase in the next six months, down slightly from 34% in the second-quarter survey; 32% expect employment to decrease in the next six months, up from 26% in the prior survey; and 35% expect no change, down from 40% in the second-quarter survey.

“The downward trend in CEO plans for investment and hiring continues to reflect reasonable caution regarding near-term prospects for modest U.S. growth,” said Randall Stephenson, chairman of Business Roundtable and chairman and CEO of AT&T Inc.

According to the survey, 41% of respondents expect their company’s US capital spending to increase in the next six months, up from 35% in the second-quarter survey.

“Predictability is critical to spur investment and unlock economic expansion and job growth,” Stephenson said. “Congress and the Administration need to work together to pass a prudent spending plan and renew expired tax provisions. US workers cannot afford the instability that comes with inaction.”

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite index of CEO expectations for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment — fell in the third quarter to a reading of 74.1 from 81.3 in the second quarter. The long-term average of the index is 80.4.

The Business Roundtable is an association of CEOs. The third-quarter 2015 survey included 141 member CEOs and was completed between Aug. 5 and Aug. 26, 2015.