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View All NewsBRIEFING - JUNE EMPLOYMENT BULLETIN
The June decline in temporary help payrolls, of 37,600 jobs, was higher than that of May but still well below the level of loss earlier in the year. It's also noteworthy that the temporary share of total employment loss has been moderating; in the first half of 2008, temporary jobs accounted for about a quarter of all jobs lost, but that share has been declining and in the last three months averaged just 7%. Nonetheless, temporary help penetration fell in June to 1.32%, and the month's temporary payrolls were off 27.2% versus the year earlier.
June nonfarm loss: 467,000 jobs
Nonfarm job losses also ticked up from the previous month, but remain well below the peak levels of this recession. Big sector losers included manufacturing -- down 136,000 jobs; construction -- off 79,000; professional services (apart from temporary staffing) -- off 80,000; government -- off 52,000; and retail and wholesale trade together -- off 37,000. Of the 52,000 government jobs lost, 46,000 were cuts in census workers.
Losses for the month moderated versus 12-month trend in six of thirteen major employment categories, most notably in retail trade, where June's losses of 21,000 jobs were well below 12-month trend of 50,000 monthly losses; in transportation and utilities, where June losses of 14,000 compared with 12-month trend of 25,000; in leisure and hospitality, where June losses of 18,000 compared with 12-month trend of 27,000 jobs; and in personal and laundry services, where 9,000 jobs were gained, compared with 12-month trend loss of 4,000.
Losses for the month increased versus 12-month trend in two of thirteen major employment categories, most notably in government, where June's losses of 52,000 (again reflecting reductions in census workers) compared with average 12-month gains of 3,000, and in professional services (apart from temporary staffing), where June's losses of 80,000 jobs compared with average 12-month losses of 60,000.
The only industry to see significant job growth was education and health, which added 34,000 jobs, equal to its 12-month average of 34,000.
Over the last year, education and health scored the largest percentage-wise increase in jobs, up 2.2%. Construction scored the largest percentage-wise decrease, down 13.7% versus the year earlier.
According to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), which produces an independent U.S. payroll estimate, June job losses were 473,000. ADP reported losses were widespread across all sizes of both goods and services producing companies, but deteriorated versus 12-month trend only in the goods-producing sector. On the services side, losses moderated versus 12-month trend.
Unemployment rise lowest in 9 months
The unemployment rate rose 0.15 percentage points to 9.5% in June. It's noteworthy that the rate of increase was well below trend and the lowest monthly increase since September. Over the previous 12 months, the unemployment rate has increased an average of 0.32 percentage points per month.
College-level unemployment actually fell a very slight 0.02 percentage points to 4.7%, the first such decline since September; this compares with an average monthly increase of 0.20 percentage points over the last twelve months. This marker is very significant both for professional staffing and direct hire, both of which are driven in part by skilled labor shortage. At the other end of the educational spectrum, unemployment in June among those without a high school diploma was 15.5%, unchanged from May.
Despite this moderation in the unemployment picture, unemployment rates remain highly elevated and will likely stay that way for some time. Accordingly, reflecting the diminished prospects for direct hire and retained search, employment in these sectors is down 10.0% and 13.0%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Staffing Industry Analysts is currently projecting a 2009 revenue decline of 55% in direct hire and 40% in retained search, making these the two worst performing sectors of staffing.
Our recent analysis of twelve month growth trends for 114 U.S. industries revealed where employment is still growing, in some few cases booming, and where it's not. The civilian federal government continues to outshine all other industries by a wide margin, with year-over-year growth of 8.1% (161,700 jobs). It is also the only industry to show an improving trend in its rate of growth on both a twelve- and six-month basis. In second place, the home health care services industry has added 61,400 jobs in the last twelve months, an achievement that's all the more impressive when one considers that the 6.5% y/y rate of growth it saw in May 2009 is the highest recorded rate since March 2005. For the full analysis and list of hottest industries, click here.
