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Australia – Economists cautiously optimistic on jobs

17 April 2015

Economists were pleasantly surprised by the latest jobs data from Australia, which showed that unemployment fell to 6.1% in March 2015, but have still maintained a healthy scepticism, according to news.com.au.

Justin Smirk, of Australian bank Westpac, acknowledged that the jobs market may really have performed better than expected: “The breakdown of the detail suggests the labour market does look more robust that we had thought.”

Michael Turner, of the Royal Bank of Canada, said that the 37,700 jump in employment and the drop in the unemployment rate was “solid at face value”. He warned, however, that the figures were clouded by changes in the way data is collected and the seasonal adjustment methodology used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

“Moreover, we have seen little change in the broader suite of labour market indicators to suggest trend improvement in demand for labour,” he added.

Gareth Aird, of the Commonwealth Bank, was cautious in his analysis: “If [the] numbers are to be believed, then they are nothing short of a stellar set of job figures.”

In August 2014, ABS announced record job creation, putting employment at its highest level in 37 years. However, in October it was confirmed that the figures were, in fact, too good to be true.  

Acknowledging ABS’ data problems, Mr Aird nevertheless said the numbers could not be ignored.